How Syria’s Rebels Seized the Moment to Overthrow Assad
How Syria’s Rebel Forces Capitalized on Opportunity to Challenge Assad
After over 13 years of devastating civil war, Syria’s opposition militias recently saw a chance to weaken President Bashar al-Assad’s grip on power. Approximately six months ago, they communicated plans for a significant offensive to Turkey and believed they had received its implicit approval, according to insiders familiar with the strategy.
The operation, launched just two weeks ago, achieved a stunning victory by seizing Syria’s second-largest city, Aleppo, in record time. Within days, the rebel alliance advanced to Damascus, ending more than five decades of Assad family rule.
Factors Behind the Rapid Advance
The rebels’ success was attributed to a combination of favorable conditions:
- Weakness of Assad’s Army: Years of conflict had left the Syrian army demoralized and poorly equipped. Corruption and resource mismanagement further depleted its capabilities, with tanks and planes rendered useless due to lack of fuel.
- Distracted Allies: Assad’s key backers—Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah—were preoccupied with other conflicts, leaving him without the decisive firepower that had previously bolstered his regime.
- Rebel Unity: The rebel forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), displayed unprecedented coordination. Experts credit HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, for building a more cohesive alliance.
Turkey’s Role: A Delicate Balancing Act
Turkey has long supported Syrian opposition groups, including the Syrian National Army (SNA), but considers HTS a terrorist organization due to its al-Qaeda roots. While Turkey’s official stance opposed large-scale offensives to avoid triggering a refugee crisis, sources suggest Ankara’s growing frustration with Assad’s refusal to engage in political solutions led to a shift.
HTS reportedly presented its plan to Turkey, arguing that diplomatic efforts had failed and urging Ankara to simply not intervene. Turkish officials have denied granting explicit approval, emphasizing their concern about regional instability.
A Collapsing Regime
Assad’s regime was caught off guard by the rebels’ lightning advance. The rapid loss of Aleppo marked a turning point, leaving government forces unable to recover. As cities like Hama and Homs fell, Assad’s army continued to weaken, enabling the rebels to reach Damascus with minimal resistance.
A regime insider revealed that morale within the military had eroded significantly in recent years, exacerbated by corruption and looting. This hollowing out of state structures left the Syrian government unable to mount a meaningful defense.
International Reactions
The rebels’ offensive also sparked varied international responses:
- United States: While Washington acknowledged Turkey’s support for the rebels, it denied knowledge of any tacit approval for the Aleppo operation. President-elect Donald Trump suggested Russia’s disengagement from Syria, driven by its focus on Ukraine, was pivotal in Assad’s downfall.
- Israel: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu highlighted his country’s role in weakening Hezbollah, which reportedly withdrew its remaining forces from Syria.
The End of an Era
The culmination of the rebel offensive marked the end of Assad’s decades-long rule, driven by a mix of internal collapse and external pressures. As the dust settles, Syria faces an uncertain future, with its fragmented opposition now tasked with rebuilding a nation scarred by years of conflict.
This dramatic turn of events highlights how quickly the tides of war can shift when opportunity aligns with preparation and circumstance. For Syria, it represents the beginning of a new chapter after years of turmoil.
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