key swing states 2024

Democrats Gain Momentum as Key Swing States Shift to Toss-Up in 2024 Presidential Race

In a significant development for the 2024 presidential race, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report has reclassified three crucial swing states—Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia—from “leaning Republican” to “toss-up.” This shift signals a surge in momentum for the Democratic Party as they work to close the gap with former President Donald Trump.

Why It Matters: Vice President Kamala Harris is under pressure to make headway in battleground states that were previously expected to lean Republican if President Joe Biden were the nominee. This new analysis comes as recent CBS polls indicate a neck-and-neck race between Trump and Harris in these pivotal states, suggesting that the Democratic ticket is gaining ground.

The Latest Developments: The Cook Political Report announced on Thursday that Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia have moved from “leaning Republican” back to “toss-up” status. These states, narrowly won by Biden in 2020, had recently shifted towards the Republican side as Biden faced growing calls within his own party to step aside from the race.

What They’re Saying: Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report noted that while Trump was leading Biden by about 2.5% in national polls just three weeks ago, Harris is now edging out Trump by “less than one point.” She added, “Battleground state polls are showing similar results, with Harris cutting into Trump’s lead by anywhere from two to five points.” Walter concluded, “Things look a lot better for Democrats today than they did a few weeks ago, but Trump is looking stronger now than he did in 2020. This is a Toss-Up.”

The Big Picture: Pennsylvania remains the most fiercely contested state, with both parties expected to spend more on advertising there than in any other swing state. The Keystone State, with its 19 electoral votes, is also rated as a “toss-up” by Cook, along with Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, North Carolina is still classified as “leaning Republican.”