“The House is headed toward another potential shutdown — and yet another setback for Trump.”

The Republican Party Faces Another Risky Government Shutdown Strategy

It’s not just about Donald Trump, but also figures like JD Vance, the House Freedom Caucus, and other key voices in the “Make America Great Again” movement. Every day seems to bring a new political misstep from this group, leaving many to wonder—can they really be making these errors again? Despite all the political miscalculations over the last year, Trump and his allies in the House seem poised to make a potentially devastating move: a government shutdown.

Historically, shutdowns haven’t been a winning strategy for Republicans. The first major shutdown in 1995 was a disaster for the party, leading to missed policy goals and hurting their chances in the presidential race. At the time, Republican nominee Bob Dole was running neck-and-neck with President Bill Clinton. However, after the shutdown, Dole’s campaign faltered, and he never regained the lead. The GOP missed a major opportunity when fiscal conservatism was popular, and the party had its first conservative Congress in decades.

Since then, self-proclaimed principled conservatives have often pushed for shutdowns with little to no political gain. They attempt to negotiate from a position of weakness, hoping for a different outcome each time. Predictably, it never works, and the Freedom Caucus continues to push these failed tactics, gaining nothing but airtime on conservative media.

There are certainly legitimate concerns about government inefficiencies—overspending, slow approval processes, and regulatory overreach—but shutdowns aren’t the solution. To make real change, Republicans need to win elections and craft a clear plan to tackle these issues. Unfortunately, the Freedom Caucus, often compared to children playing politics, hasn’t grasped this concept. Even under Trump, when Republicans controlled the presidency, a shutdown resulted in nothing but plummeting approval ratings.

Yet Trump appears to be doubling down on this losing strategy. Reports suggest that he’s considering tying the SAVE Act, a bill requiring American citizenship to vote, to government funding negotiations. While the idea of citizenship for voters is widely supported, with states like Florida and Ohio passing similar laws by large margins, forcing a government shutdown over this issue is not a winning strategy. Voters are more concerned with immediate consequences, like the effects of a shutdown, than with future voting legislation.

Moreover, this tactic looks more like a last-minute stunt. House Republicans have had the majority for a year and could have introduced a citizenship voting bill earlier, holding hearings and making it a central part of their policy agenda. Instead, they focused on failed efforts to impeach President Biden. Now, with little time left, this rushed strategy seems like political theater rather than thoughtful governance.

In the end, Trump and his allies, like JD Vance, seem out of touch with the realities of political strategy. Vance’s recent defense of a failed Senate vote, calling it a “show vote,” highlights the political missteps that have plagued Trump’s allies. Despite a favorable political environment, with President Biden’s approval ratings underwater on most major issues, Trump remains locked in a tight race for the presidency.

Trump’s undisciplined campaign and chaotic messaging have led him into a near deadlock with Vice President Kamala Harris. With both candidates polling closely in key swing states, Trump’s campaign is teetering on the edge. And while it may seem like things couldn’t get worse for the former president, his continued embrace of a risky shutdown strategy could prove to be the final blow to his chances in 2024.